NARROWING THE ODDS
As far as the weather’s concerned it’s been a pretty eventful month here in the UK. Freezing temperatures, a tremendous Northern Lights display, and then a proper dump of snow to signal Winter’s last hurrah have made landscape photography quite challenging to say the least! It’s been difficult to know what the next day’s weather will bring and has been very frustrating at times.
As a landscape photographer I’m often asked how I plan for the weather. Am I just lucky or do I try to ensure the odds are in my favour? I’ve spoken previously about the amount of planning that goes into getting a half decent landscape image and weather forecasts are an integral part of the preparation. A 200 mile round trip is fairly common for me and in these days of increased fuel costs I need to carefully consider the chances of getting an image I’m happy with. It’s impossible to get the right weather conditions all of the time but narrowing the odds in my favour is so important. So how do I go about it?
I plan my trips weeks in advance based on where the sun is going to rise or set and choosing a location that suits the composition I have in mind. The same applies to astrophography. I know a long way ahead where and when the Milky Way will rise and how the moon’s cycle will influence the night sky. All of these things can be factored into the plan to the nth degree but none of it counts if the weather doesn’t play ball. To quantify the challenge, no weather forecast is 100% accurate. It is simply what it says - it’s a forecast, and although there is more science behind meteorology than ever before, there’s no money-back guarantee. So in the last few days before a shoot I spend more and more time checking the forecasts, watching the forecasts and listening to the forecasts. Over the years I’ve come to trust some more than others, mainly based on getting soaked to the skin when factor 30 sunscreen was recommended…… Short of simply throwing the curtains back and looking outside, I need to be as certain as possible what the day will bring. So which apps or organisations do I use and which have proved to be the best? This is only a sample and there are lots of other apps available that other folks swear by.
From around a week out I’ll look at the Met Office website (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk) for general conditions and Clear Outside ( https://clearoutside.com ) for a more in-depth view. Both of these are pretty reliable in terms of trend, despite the Met Office always erring on the cautious side. I don’t have complete confidence in either of these but they are a decent starting point for planning.
A couple of days before my trip I’ll start looking at an app called YR ( https://www.yr.no ). I have this as an app on my ‘phone so that I can access it when away from home for any length of time. Provided by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, I have great confidence in YR to the point where I trust it more than the Met Office. I also start looking at a website called Windy ( https://www.windy.com ) which can give me far more information on cloud layers, fog, ice and also wave height. This a very in-depth set of data and takes a while to investigate but it’s very accurate.
On the day, I’ll also check Rain Today (available on IOS and Android) and Metcheck ( https://www.metcheck.com ) for the latest view. These are both extremely reliable but are only good for a short period ahead on the day in question.
Even with all of this helpful information to hand I’m never completely confident and many a time I’ve set off with all the weather signs in my favour only to turn back or get to the location and be disappointed. A recent failed astro shoot on the Gower coast was one of the reasons I chose this subject for the blog. Leaving home under clear skies as forecast looked promising but a 90 minute drive proved almost fruitless, and despite being pigheaded and suffering in a freezing wind for three hours, even the occasionally cloud breaks stopped me from getting the image I’d had in my minds eye for months. It’s hard to remain positive when this happens but as relative newbie to astrophotography I learned a few things (such as stay home you fool !!) that will help me next time I’m out. The other reason for this subject was, as mentioned earlier, the widely differing and changeable weather we’ve experienced through February into March.
We’re only a few days away from Spring as I write, so the prospect of longer, warmer days are just around the corner. With luck we’ll see a spell of settled weather with more photographer-friendly conditions. I’m not holding my breath though. I’m away in Cornwall next week hoping to take full advantage of the South West coast’s milder conditions but the forecasts are currently undecided. Should I take that as a positive sign?
I totally accept that weather forecasting can be hugely difficult. The recent Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) and it’s subsequent effect on global weather systems exposed some of the shortcomings in weather forecasting. To add to the mix, a recent spate of Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) from the sun has complicated matters further. (SSWs and CMEs are both subjects that fascinate me, but may be a yawn-inducing step too far for the lovely readers of this blog !) So I don’t expect everything every time. Living in the UK for over 60 years has taught me that there’s a reason why we’re always discussing the weather.